After Pennsylvania, Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities remain Wisconsin and North Carolina, where one GOP senator — Sen. Ron Johnson — still hasn’t made up his mind about running for reelection and the other, Burr, announced five years ago that this would be his last term. Democrats are attacking Johnson for voting against the infrastructure package and they’re deploying a similar line against Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida. Republicans still have the advantage in the Sunshine State, but it’s the eighth most likely to flip for the second month in a row.
Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities are in Georgia and Arizona, two states that Biden and Senate Democrats flipped last cycle. Democratic Sens. Raphael Warnock, who won in a 2021 runoff, and Mark Kelly, who won last year, face reelection again next fall for full six-year terms.
Here are the 10 seats most likely to flip:
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)
Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock
Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson
Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly
5. North Carolina
Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)
6. New Hampshire
Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan
Still waiting… that’s the refrain in the Granite State, where Republicans (and Democrats) are watching to see when Gov. Chris Sununu will make a decision about challenging Hassan. Trump has said he would like to see him run — as would establishment Republicans. He had said he’d make a decision after the end of the legislative session, but that deadline has come and gone. “I’m not going to make a decision for a while,” Sununu said last week on the “Ruthless” podcast, hosted by longtime McConnell adviser Josh Holmes. While the holdup may be frustrating some Republicans, Sununu is probably right that he has time. As a sitting governor, he doesn’t need to introduce himself to voters. (Hassan, herself a former two-term governor, didn’t announce for Senate until October 2015.) And if he doesn’t run, the GOP may have another good option in former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who only lost to Hassan by 1,017 votes in 2016. Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to turn the GOP excitement for Sununu into an attack by tying him to McConnell, launching digital ads last week about how they are “two sides of the same coin.” They’re also leaning hard into Sununu’s signing of a budget with abortion restrictions — an issue that could be problematic for the Republican in a state that’s increasingly trended blue in federal elections.
Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto
Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)
Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring)